Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
